The International Monetary Fund expects economic contraction in the Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan by 1.3% during 2026, due to the repercussions of the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which is causing disruptions in energy production, shipping, tourism, and trade.
The fund clarified that the impact of the war varies from country to country, as oil-exporting countries face greater pressures due to disruptions in energy production and shipping, while oil-importing countries showed greater resilience.
It indicated that the region's economies may witness a notable recovery in 2027, with economic output expected to grow by 6.6%, but warned that ongoing disruptions in energy production could lead to a decline in economic forecasts.
The fund stated that these projections are based on the assumption that the conflict diminishes in early 2027, with trade gradually returning to normal during the year, emphasizing that uncertainty remains high amid current developments.
In a related context, the fund predicted that the economy of the Caucasus and Central Asia would achieve a growth rate of 5.2% during 2026, slowing slightly to 5% in 2027.